Even in dire markets, there can be growth. We just need to look one level deeper.

No sensible investor would put money into the toilet paper business. The market is sluggish. Margins are thin. Who Gives A Crap ignored that advice. Its UK business grew revenue by 13.5% last year and made a healthy profit, by selling eco-friendly toilet rolls directly to customers.

The toilet paper market wasn’t the opportunity. A particular kind of toilet paper, sold to particular people in a particular way, was.

Growth is granular.

When people try to explain why a company grows, they often start with global market conditions. That's understandable. But not very useful. Global averages hide the very thing we are looking for: the sources of growth.

Go one level deeper. From the world market to sectors, industries, regions, categories, customers—and the picture changes. A shrinking market can have growing regions. A flat region can have growing categories. A mature category can have growing customer groups.

The authors of The Granularity of Growth found that broad industry growth explained little about why companies grow. But digging into subindustries and product categories by region explained nearly 65%. The closer they looked, the more growth they found.

NVIDIA just had another record year. So did the semiconductor market. Growing with the trend is easier.

But what to do when “the category is flat,” “the region is difficult,” or “the customer base is shrinking.” These statements may all be true. They are also averages.

Ask a better question: Which parts are still moving? The global snack business may look flat. XL dry-roasted peanuts in Nigeria may grow fast.

Growth often disappears when we look from a distance.
Move closer.